Nintendo Switch's success saved the Japanese console market from collapse, analyst says
If the Nintendo Switch had flopped like the Wii U, the Japanese console market would have been "completely eliminated," according to Dr Serkan Toto, CEO of analytics firm Kantan Games Inc. Nintendo's dominant 70% market share in Japan made the console's
The Nintendo Switch's success proved far more consequential than just boosting Nintendo's bottom line. An analyst now argues that if the hybrid console had failed like the Wii U, it would have fundamentally reshaped Japan's entire gaming landscape.
"I would say that if Nintendo produced another flop like the Wii U, and if the Switch wasn't the super hit it turned out to be, the Japanese console market would have been completely eliminated," Dr Serkan Toto, CEO of analytics firm Kantan Games Inc, told The Game Business. "I think that even more people would have turned to smartphones, and maybe even PC."
Nintendo's position heading into the Switch launch was precarious. The Wii U had disappointed players and investors alike after the original Wii's massive success. The company needed a win, and the stakes were especially high given Nintendo's outsized influence in Japan's gaming market.
"Nintendo not only completely dominates the console segment here in Japan with 70% market share for all gaming content, but they also saved it," Toto said.
The Wii U's lifetime sales reached just under 14 million units, making it one of the worst-performing consoles Nintendo has ever released. The company responded strategically by reserving major franchises for the Switch. While Mario Kart 8 and Super Mario 3D World launched on the Wii U, blockbuster titles like Super Mario Odyssey and The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild were held for the Switch to drive adoption.
That strategy worked. The Switch became the second-best-selling console of all time, behind only the PlayStation 2. Nine years after launch, Nintendo has expanded its reach far beyond gaming, launching theme parks and blockbuster films featuring its characters. The Switch 2 continues the momentum with healthy sales.
Without the Switch's success, Toto suggests a very different outcome was possible. Players in Japan might have abandoned consoles altogether in favour of smartphones and PC gaming, fundamentally altering the regional industry that has produced some of gaming's most iconic franchises and companies.
Sources
- GamesRadar+Secondary publication · recorded Sep 18, 2026The Nintendo Switch would have "completely eliminated" the Japanese console market if it became "another flop like the Wii U," expert says
- GamesRadar+Secondary publication · recorded Sep 18, 2026Japanese companies like Nintendo, Capcom, and Konami are healthier because they have smaller teams, don't have frequent layoffs, and don't pay executives $30 million, says expert
- Nintendo LifeSecondary publication · recorded Sep 18, 2026Japanese Console Market Would Have Been "Eliminated" If Switch Failed, Says Analyst