Can MSI performance predict Worlds success?

Every year, the Mid-Season Invitational (MSI) provides a major international test for the strongest teams in League of Legends. As teams clash in best-of-five series, an international champion is crowned. However, despite Worlds arriving just months later, history shows that the MSI champion rarely goes on to lift the Summoner's Cup in the same year. Hanwha Life Esports (HLE) became the latest team to test that theory after defeating Bilibili Gaming 3–2 to win MSI 2026, while LYON finished third and G2 Esports took fourth. With HLE having already secured its place at Worlds 2026, the question remains whether they can claim League's most prestigious trophy.

History presents a mixed outlook. Across the ten completed MSI-to-Worlds seasons between 2015 and 2025 (excluding 2020 due to the global pandemic), only one MSI champion won Worlds in the same year: SK Telecom T1 in 2016. Other winners like EDward Gaming, RNG, and Gen.G all fell short of the ultimate prize later in the year. Overall, MSI champions have achieved a 60% semifinal appearance rate and a 30% final appearance rate, but only a 10% win rate at Worlds.

Despite winning MSI being a poor indicator of who wins Worlds, performing well at the tournament remains a strong indicator of a deep Worlds run. Across the same ten seasons, 19 out of 40 MSI top-four teams reached the Worlds semifinals. Furthermore, 12 of the 20 teams that reached an MSI final between 2015 and 2025 subsequently made the Worlds semifinals that same year.

The predictive power has seemingly grown stronger under MSI's expanded format introduced by Riot Games in 2023. Prior to 2023, single-representative formats often meant top global contenders missed MSI entirely. Under the expanded format from 2023 to 2025, eight out of 12 MSI top-four teams reached the Worlds semifinals, raising the success rate from 39.3% to 66.7%. Additionally, every single MSI finalist from those three years reached at least the semifinals at Worlds. While sample sizes remain small, the modern format aligns much more closely with Worlds outcomes.